At CTIA today for the CEO Panel, AllThingsD quipped, "A lot of carbon dioxide being expended at CTIA talking about how spectrum is the industry’s oxygen." Just so you know, they HAVE spectrum. They horde spectrum. What they don't do is deploy it until they feel like it.

CTIA wants another auction. The FCC's "Genachowski touts benefits of voluntary incentive auction where broadcasters and others get a piece of the revenue generated by auctioning off their spectrum."  Have they all forgotten that the radio spectrum is a public asset? That it isn't owned but leased out for use for very specific reasons, like a public radio station, a TV station or cellular data?

More regulations have to come with a $30B auction of the last of the spectrum.  More good would come from making some of it unlicensed or even quasi-licensed like 3650 MHz.

You look at the spectrum out there right now - like T-Mobile's AWS, VZW's 700 MHz, Aloha Networks' 700 MHz that Ma Bell bought, Qualcomm's 700 MHz that Ma Bell wants, Clearwire's 2.5 GHz, and LightSquared owns 70 MHz of spectrum in the 1.x GHz range. "However, only 13MHz of the spectrum is dedicated for terrestrial services.  However, as a part of an agreement with the FCC, LightSquared can use all of its spectrum for LTE services, if the devices employed can also connect to the satellite network.  Harbinger also insisted on a provision governing access.  The FCC requires SkyTerra to gain approval if it wishes to lease more than 25% of its spectrum to Verizon or AT&T," according to Instat.  That's a lot of spectrum out there before you even get to White Spaces. And let's remember something significant: Much of this spectrum is NOT deployed.

The Big 3 CEO's sitting on the CTIA dias with Julius asking for more spectrum is like the fat prep school boys letting their ice cream cones melt over their hands while crying for more ice cream.

Here's a Wireless ISP's view of the Airwaves.

AT&T announced yesterday that they were buying T-Mobile from its parent, DT, for $39B.  There are so many losers in this combination I don't know where to begin!

First, generally consumers lose as Ma Bell hordes even more spectrum. T-Mobile has AWS spectrum; Ma Bell is buying Qualcomm's 700 MHz spectrum, which is being contested by consumer groups, because all this spectrum shouldn't be in the hands of 2 companies. Ma Bell already has 700 MHz spectrum from its Aloha Networks buy. Just deploy it already.
(The customers for The Combo Big T could win when all that spectrum is finally deployed.) 

Consumers will also lose because T-Mobile was a low-priced carrier. That will surely go away so that The Big T can maintain ARPU.

Handset manufacturers lose one more customer. Wireless gear companies lose one more customer. Google Android loses one more customer. Competition loses as the Big 4 become the Big 3. That's never good.

Sprint loses (although a merger with T-Mobile might have killed this company; no merger may be its death knell as well). Sprint might have to start thinking about buying MetroPCS, Cricket, Leap and US Cellular, none of which will be an easy deal due to ownership.

The FCC and DOJ lose here because they will approve it eventually, but even with concessions, it will create a company way too big to fail. And a company that will fail in customer service and delivery as it has done throughout the iPhone era. Oh, and a company that isn't about open handsets either. No, sir, T is all about locking that ecosystem down into little walled gardens. The DOJ and the FCC just don't have the cajolies to say No to a merger.

Ma Bell already has sizeable debt; this will just add to it. And remember this is a flat market. Sure more devices are being attached to the cellular network, but how much more ARPU can you get out of any consumer? Seriously. Apparently, Ma Bell looked around and said, "We can't grow organically. We talk about all the opportunity out there, but we are all about being BIG, not good, just BIG. We can't get BIG through organic growth when our network and reputation are taking a beating. Let's pull an Alltel-VZ."

The economy loses here as well. This merger will result in tens of thousands of layoffs. Not just at The Big Combo T but at gear and handset manufacturers as well in a ripple effect. Just what the economy needs more lay offs.

T-Mobile customers win by getting access to the iPhone in 15 or 18 months.

DT wins because they end up owning 8% of The Big Combo T; but they wanted 50% of a combo with Sprint, so go figure.

Oh! and Wall Street wins because so many bankers get paid on this deal. (I had to delete what I wrote about my feeling towards bankers who really add nothing of value to our economy.)

Whenever I read a really good book, it takes a while because my head fills with thoughts of how this will help my clients (and my readers  Right now I am reading Evil Plans by Hugh MacLeod [affil link].

Success is Complex. It isn't simple.

Business is Change. Especially today. Don't believe me? Ask anyone in marketing, PR, newspapers, TV, music, movies. The Internet has changed everything. (And still is.)

Sure technology changes - probably faster than Moore's Law now. But that's not all that changes.

Your business is not a checklist. It's not a series of activities that can be listed and checked off. Whew! Now we are done. You don't run through a checklist and say: website done. check. sales person hired. check. mailer sent out. check. The website has to evolve. Marketing has to shift to listening and engaging. Sales has to adapt. The back office needs to scale. Billing has to interface with ordering.

I understand that you are stressed out; too busy; no time; blah, blah, blah. And I mean it too. Blah blah blah. Those are excuses. You could outsource it. You could delegate. All too often we do the urgent and not the important. We don't schedule properly. Yet there are so many tools to help you do that.

Success is about managing the Complex.