Peter Radizeski is Founder and President of RAD-INFO INC. He is an accomplished blogalyst, speaker, author and consultant. He has helped many service providers with sales training, marketing, channel development and business strategy. He is a trusted source of knowledge about the telecom sector. His honest and direct approach make him a refreshing speaker.

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What Channel Are You Watching?

One thing I have noticed is that UCaaS sales overall is not accelerating. Gary Kim writes how it is becoming commodity.

VoIP services market up 5% to $73Bn in 2015, says IHS. Residential makes up 62% of that. UCaaS grew just 6%.

Meanwhile, 8×8 grew 29% YoY for 2 years. ARPU is $369. Vonage Business grew because of acquisitions. It is yet to be seen how the 4 acquisitions, 3 platforms and large target market work together. From selling to VSB with a sub-$200 ARPU to acquiring a company with $4400 ARPU is a wide range. Three of the acquisitions were all about Hosted PBX, but iCore, founded in 2004, was offering its 85K seats Microsoft SfB, IAAS and Broadsoft.

The channels are different too. Telesphere and Simple Signal drove sales primarily through the Channel. That is different than Vocalocity and Vonage, which was focused on inside sales and online sales to generate business. iCore was all direct sales. A lot of different engines. Channel Conflict abounds.

Most startup success, according to Bill Gross, is about timing. Broadsoft had a long run of having to compete against premise PBX and open source hosted PBX offerings. Broadsoft and its client providers had ten years to ramp up the market and create demand.

Unfortunately that was enough time to make the market move to where they needed it to go. Selling Change is very hard. Most people buy replacement products. Telecom is a toothache that they don’t want to deal with. They stick to what they know.

Salespeople – indirect and direct sales channels – have spent years selling replacement services in a transactional manner. Getting those channels to shift to selling change (cloud) has been slow and is still in-process.

There isn’t enough Demand yet. There isn’t a Brand driving the market.

Seth Godin writes about Awareness, trust and action. While the awareness for UCaaS may be increasing, the action piece hasn’t. Probably because of the Trust piece. And actual awareness of UC, HPBX, UCaaS, CCaaS, ECaaS and other meaningless terms bantered about by the providers probably causes more confusion than awareness. Confusion does not foster Trust. See the dilemma?

Hardware PBX is still selling. Now it sits in a data center instead of on-premise (within easy reach), but still selling. Ask any of these companies if boxes are still moving:

PBX-PUSHERS.jpg

People are staying safe. The Trust Thing Again.

Microsoft and Cisco have what I call Demand. People want to buy it. They distribute through VADs quite frankly because they don’t want to deal with distribution to what amounted to 125K resellers in years past. Far easier to let a VAD like Ingram handle it.

Today, we see ITSPs knocking on the door of VADs hoping that it will increase sales. I don’t see how that model works, since the ITSP has yet to create DEMAND or Awareness for its BRAND.

A VAD is an online catalog of SKUs. It is not something that you can browse. You have to know what you are looking for. Even searching for a category like a UPS or a switch needs to be narrowed down to size or brand or model. So searching for something that doesn’t even lend itself to SKU. It is a billable entity but it has to be consumable like a software license or a piece of hardware. And the reseller has to understand the SKU and how it fits into the solution (what other SKUs are needed to build the solution.) It is more complex than I can describe until you have searched for SPLA from Microsoft for your specific use case. Now imagine scrolling through that to order a UCaaS solution for a company of 20 employees plus porting numbers and toll-free. Yeah.

That doesn’t even consider how a reseller would know to order your stuff through Ingram – and why he would do that as opposed to going to a master agency or going direct.

Demand and Brand are just 2 key components. Timing, which is required for startups, is starting to slip away. MS and Cisco and other entrenched vendors are tying up the Enterprise space. Lots of room to sell to under 100 seats – a majority fo the market – but no one wants the hassle. Cost of sale is high. Cost of support is high. Churn is high. No upside, except that market size they keep quoting in investor prezos consists of mainly the sub 100 seat company. It should be interesting.

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    What Channel Are You Watching?

    One thing I have noticed is that UCaaS sales overall is not accelerating. Gary Kim writes how it is becoming commodity.

    VoIP services market up 5% to $73Bn in 2015, says IHS. Residential makes up 62% of that. UCaaS grew just 6%.

    Meanwhile, 8×8 grew 29% YoY for 2 years. ARPU is $369. Vonage Business grew because of acquisitions. It is yet to be seen how the 4 acquisitions, 3 platforms and large target market work together. From selling to VSB with a sub-$200 ARPU to acquiring a company with $4400 ARPU is a wide range. Three of the acquisitions were all about Hosted PBX, but iCore, founded in 2004, was offering its 85K seats Microsoft SfB, IAAS and Broadsoft.

    The channels are different too. Telesphere and Simple Signal drove sales primarily through the Channel. That is different than Vocalocity and Vonage, which was focused on inside sales and online sales to generate business. iCore was all direct sales. A lot of different engines. Channel Conflict abounds.

    Most startup success, according to Bill Gross, is about timing. Broadsoft had a long run of having to compete against premise PBX and open source hosted PBX offerings. Broadsoft and its client providers had ten years to ramp up the market and create demand.

    Unfortunately that was enough time to make the market move to where they needed it to go. Selling Change is very hard. Most people buy replacement products. Telecom is a toothache that they don’t want to deal with. They stick to what they know.

    Salespeople – indirect and direct sales channels – have spent years selling replacement services in a transactional manner. Getting those channels to shift to selling change (cloud) has been slow and is still in-process.

    There isn’t enough Demand yet. There isn’t a Brand driving the market.

    Seth Godin writes about Awareness, trust and action. While the awareness for UCaaS may be increasing, the action piece hasn’t. Probably because of the Trust piece. And actual awareness of UC, HPBX, UCaaS, CCaaS, ECaaS and other meaningless terms bantered about by the providers probably causes more confusion than awareness. Confusion does not foster Trust. See the dilemma?

    Hardware PBX is still selling. Now it sits in a data center instead of on-premise (within easy reach), but still selling. Ask any of these companies if boxes are still moving:

    PBX-PUSHERS.jpg

    People are staying safe. The Trust Thing Again.

    Microsoft and Cisco have what I call Demand. People want to buy it. They distribute through VADs quite frankly because they don’t want to deal with distribution to what amounted to 125K resellers in years past. Far easier to let a VAD like Ingram handle it.

    Today, we see ITSPs knocking on the door of VADs hoping that it will increase sales. I don’t see how that model works, since the ITSP has yet to create DEMAND or Awareness for its BRAND.

    A VAD is an online catalog of SKUs. It is not something that you can browse. You have to know what you are looking for. Even searching for a category like a UPS or a switch needs to be narrowed down to size or brand or model. So searching for something that doesn’t even lend itself to SKU. It is a billable entity but it has to be consumable like a software license or a piece of hardware. And the reseller has to understand the SKU and how it fits into the solution (what other SKUs are needed to build the solution.) It is more complex than I can describe until you have searched for SPLA from Microsoft for your specific use case. Now imagine scrolling through that to order a UCaaS solution for a company of 20 employees plus porting numbers and toll-free. Yeah.

    That doesn’t even consider how a reseller would know to order your stuff through Ingram – and why he would do that as opposed to going to a master agency or going direct.

    Demand and Brand are just 2 key components. Timing, which is required for startups, is starting to slip away. MS and Cisco and other entrenched vendors are tying up the Enterprise space. Lots of room to sell to under 100 seats – a majority fo the market – but no one wants the hassle. Cost of sale is high. Cost of support is high. Churn is high. No upside, except that market size they keep quoting in investor prezos consists of mainly the sub 100 seat company. It should be interesting.

    Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
    Related tags: , , , , ,

    Related Entries

  • Sales is Transitioning, Are Salespeople?Jul 17, 2015
  • What Business Model Should the VAR Examine?Mar 30, 2015
  • Channel Sales Enablement: Part 2Jun 30, 2013
  • Cloud Comms On the RiseDec 28, 2015
  • Are You Offering Solutions or Products?Jun 26, 2015
  • Where is the VoIP Market is Going?May 11, 2015
    Thumbnail image for how-weve-always-done-it-this-way.jpg
  • Sales Math and Measuring What MattersFeb 18, 2015
  • Notes from Connections 2014 Part DeuxOct 13, 2014
    BSFT2014-1.jpg
  • The UC Install OpprtunityMay 19, 2014
    megapath_185221.jpg
  • Running Out of SalespeopleApr 07, 2014
    USPharmaSalesRepsChart.jpg
  • TrackBacks
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    Telecom Tidbits (Part 2433)

    You work in Tech. Everyday is a front row seat to amazing. Right?

    A pretty good primer on SDN from BI in 2012!

    Charter Bid Approved! Only condition, NewCharterCo can’t have data caps for 7 years. Big deal. In many markets they are the sole broadband provider. $$$.

    In a time when storage is practically free, Microsoft sends me a not: On July 27, 2016, the amount of storage that comes with Microsoft OneDrive will change from 15 GB to 5 GB.

    the Digital Divide

    A new report about Western Mass’s fiber fiasco sheds light on the national failure to provide high-speed digital access to rural America. The Digital Divide is still a fight. Despite AT&T, Comcast and Google Fiber thumping their chests about Gigabit, it is available in just pockets of America. AT&T is offering $5 internet to low-income families at 3 MB, which is DSL speed. And if I am not mistaken was part of their merger conditions for AT&T-SBC. Verizon keeps raising the price of DSL. Comcast, other cablecos, satellite providers and fixed wireless ISPs have data caps, which customer hate. And that is in urban markets too.

    M and A

    X5 Solutions, a portfolio company of NewSpring Capital, rolled up three telecom companies – NovaTel Ltd. Inc., CornerStone Telephone Company LLC and Richmond Telephone Company. [press release]

    Consolidated Communications, an ILEC formerly known as SureWest, buys another one the Illinois-based Champaign Telephone Company. This deal adds 275 fiber route miles, 310 lit buildings, and 1,500 business customers.

    Allied Fiber burned through $93 million in money to make $50K and was forced to file bankruptcy by its primary lien holder. [My tweet has all 3 links – Rich Tehrani’s post, the Ramblings story and the BK filing.]

    All About the API

    July 18-21 in Vegas, the first ever All about the API conference in being held. Join Dialogic, Teli, Vidyo and others to learn more about the API and the business around it.

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    Apex Technology Services
    Sponsored by Apex Technology Services, a leading IT Services company

    Why Are You Calling Me?

    Facebook Messanger is used by 900 million people in form or another (desktop, laptop, tablet, iOS, Android, Windows). Messenger already rolled out voice and video calls via the chat app. “Mark Zuckerberg announced that Messenger already made up 10 percent of all mobile VoIP calls globally,” according to TechCrunch. Now you can “start a group VoIP audio call from any group chat.” Conference calls started via group chat. There are enterprise software that can’t do that.

    Slack has video and voice. Snapchat does too. WhatsApp – also owned by Facebook – does too. Office365 does. Apple has Facetime. There isn’t anywhere that you can go to get away from voice or video calls.

    This means more avenues for ads, robocalls, annoyance and loss of productivity. All of this was supposed to make it easier. (I hope it all comes with a DND (do not disturb) button that is easily found.)

    A bunch of UCaaS players are rushing to catch up to Slack by adding threaded group messages, containers and the like to UC&C Presence and IM apps. Here’s the problem: I have too many ways for people to contact me!

    If I thought I was tethered before (because of a smartphone), now it is far worse.

    And the inbox is now inboxes!!! Not just Outlook and Gmail, but Messenger, Slack, twitter, SMS/text. Where did that address or request go? What inbox is carrying that thread?

    I not only have too many interruption points, I have too many inboxes. This stuff isn’t getting simpler. It is getting more complicated.

    Can you imagine discovery during a trial? I need his snapchat, facebook, twitter, gmail, outlook, messenger, office365, skype history, inbox and calls. How long would it take to gather all of that?

    Gary Kim writes that telecom is a commodity like sugar. The Next Gen Network isn’t a carrier network; it is the Internet. Everything rides over that now. Not the best solution for a reliable, secure network.

    With Hosted PBX revenue at around $9 Billion globally (via Gary Kim), then it isn’t growing but contracting.

    Free P2P voice is taking over where cell phone minutes had ruined the landline business. Texts, email, chat and social media are replacing voice calls. [Even in dating, a form of sales, there is no way to call anyone through a dating app despite technology that could provide for it.

    Chat is replacing text. Minutes are declining. Where will the revenue come from?

    As they spend CAPEX to build fiber to the premise and to the tower, dropping $40K on a fiber build is not uncommon, how do they get the revenue back? The ROI is long. The ARPU is flat. The only thing changing are the fees. They keep adding more and increasing them. The fee should just be called Margin or Profit.

    No idea where this is going, but it isn’t getting simpler. The way to interrupt someone is too pervasive. When employees are already working longer hours, distraction avenues have increased. Would be nice if it got simpler.

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    Musings on the Polycom Deal

    So MITEL is getting bigger by buying Polycom. It had been rumored for weeks and now finally hits the news.

    I wonder if Polycom saw the writing on the wall that the battle is going to come down to Microsoft versus Cisco? Motley Fool thinks that is why the OTT ITSP 3Some – 8×8, RC and Vonage – all had a bad day at the stock market. That would be funny, since who pays that close attention to the space? Not even analysts in the space really pay that close attention to detail.

    Certainly, Skype for Business gets a lot of press. SfB is the Donald Trump of UC&C. But that doesn’t mean that the OTT ITSP 3Some is going away – or won’t add 20% revenue next quarter. There are other candidates for a company to use for UC&C, phones and dial-tone.

    With the new Windows 10 update came a pin called PHONE on my laptop. So maybe there IS something to worry about.

    The MS Connectors and Groups seems like MS is taking cues from Slack, even though SfB is integrated with Slack.

    When the Fool says this: “RingCentral and friends are now facing challenges from Microsoft and many other titan-sized technology experts. The proof is in the pudding, and these VoIP experts must continue to show that they can deliver healthy business results in head-to-head competition with true giants.” It makes me wonder if the Fool knows that the Giants ARE in VoIP — Comcast, AT&T, Verizon. I mean, VZ has Cisco HCS, VCE, Broadsoft – and after buying XO will have more Broadsoft plus Genband.

    Granted, no one is putting on seats as fast as SfB or Slack. And that, I think, is why the analysts are crying. In ten years of VoIP, it just hasn’t crushed it yet.

    I don’t know if the analysts have looked, but customer acquisition is expensive – and hard – in VoIP. Far easier to include Lync with Office and Email than to try to sell it. Remember how MS included a shitty browser for free on the desktop? Or how they gave away Sharepoint?

    VoIP Providers have to pay salespeople, build a channel, give away phones (and other hardware), SPIFFs, free months of service, just to get a customer. The cost of that acquisition is being questioned apparently on the stock market. OR it may all be a fluke and stock speculation going awry.

    Either way, it doesn’t shake the fact that the cost of acquisition is similar to cellular right now. The cellcos are buying customers for over $650 each!!! Imagine that!! The Street always watches the wrong numbers.

    Meanwhile, in the handset market, Polycom probably peaked in market share at 38%. Yealink and many others are running into the space — at the same time that many seats are being deployed without a handset! Softphones, mobile apps and even bluetooth headsets are taking market share from the handsets. Not just Polycom, but all of them!

    This merger announcement was not taken well by many SPs. Fuze (formerly known as ThinkingPhones) has already announced inter-op with Yealink. A few others I spoke with are looking at Grandstream, Obihai and others — because MITEL competes with them!

    Now Windstream, AT&T and Verizon may not care with phone, because they sell MITEL and Avaya also. The rest of the players are tired of competing against their vendors! (BSFT should hear that last comment again and again!)

    It wasn’t even a good deal for Polycom. “The transaction will comprise $447 million in cash (23%) and $1.51 billion in stock (77%) and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2016. Mitel doubles in size–reaching revenue of $2.5 billion (2015 pro forma)–paying a relatively underwhelming 1.2 times trailing revenue (EV of $1.5 billion) and 7.3 times trailing EBITDA for a videoconferencing vendor,” writes William Blair of Equity Research.

    Also, Polycom’s relationship with Microsoft for video was supposed to help Polycom’s video business, especially for video enabled phones. I could see Microsoft relenting and using there own version of WebRTC to do video and calls inside Lync/SfB in the near future.

    MITEL probably should have bought SLACK! By the time it closes this deal, Polycom won’t be worth as much as it is now (diminishing returns).

    There is a brave new world here. It is ruled by mobile apps – Facebook, Instagram. Snapchat, WhatsApp, twitter, Slack and others. (3 of those are owned by FB!) We know in the consumer play, FB has plans to be a trojan horse in payments and transactions. However, who takes the business desktop? So far it is Office365.

    Cisco just launched Spark. It’s integration with Salesforce is a highlight, but its ability to integrate with many other apps is why the folks at 170 West Tasman Dr. in San Jose think they will get some market share back. They are counting on Spark working well, the channel embracing it and the Cisco ecosystem still being valuable.

    Customers buy ecosystem for integration, ease of use and sameness of GUI for the employees who utilize this stuff. Ultimately, BPaaS is where Spark is heading, with everything happening inside of Spark instead of a number of windows.

    That is the one thing that MS and Cisco have: a certified channel that drinks the kool-aid. And these 2 companies are already ingrained in the Fortune 5000.

    This space keeps getting interesting. The market thinks that MS/Cisco won already. You could say that Polycom cashing out admits defeat — or the investors wanted the cash. Makes it harder for the ITSP market.

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