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CenturyLink Buying Level3: Dumb Idea

The rumor on Friday turned out to be true: CenturyLink is buying Level3. CenturyLink has its roots in the RLEC business. It has acquired a number of smaller RLECs throughout the years including VZ and GTE assets. In 2002, it started making mistakes when it sold its cellular business to ALLTEL. It acquired Digital Teleport and renamed it LightCore. Every year it has acquired some assets, mainly smaller RLEC companies and the accompanying POTS lines.

In 2008, C-Link bought Embarq, formerly Sprint/United.in $11.6B deal including assumed debt. In 2010, C-Link bought Qwest which included RBOC assets that flew the US West banner. “The valuation of CenturyLink’s purchase was $22.4 billion, including the assumption of $11.8 billion of outstanding debt held by Qwest.”

In 2011, CenturyLink begins to stray from grabbing fiber and POTS lines in favor of the data center business it acquired with Qwest. Much to the chagrin of the agent channel, Savvis was scooped up for $3.2B including debt. This started a series of acquisitions to beef up a cloud business that for all intents and purposes C-Link is mired in for no reason.

The ITO Business Division of Ciber (managed services), AppFrog (PAAS), Tier3 (IAAS), Cognilytics (analytics), DataGardens (DRaaS), Orchestrate (DBaaS), netAura LLC (security services) and ElasticBox (VPS) – all scooped up in the last 3 years to make a soup out of a cloud division that it is still trying to sell. The rumor today is that Savvis will be spun off. No word if that will be just data center or both data center and cloud. And that makes even less sense since Level3 actually knows how to sell colocation – unlike practically anyone in Monroe.

I understand that being rural and watching your CAF and USF subsidies slowly decrease makes you yearn for fatter and happier days. And when you look at Level3’s $10B in NOLs, you start to think like Carl Icahn. However, have you seen what Icahn did to XO???? Have you seen what C-Link did to Qwest and Savvis??? That husk will next be Level3.

With debt this deal will be worth about $34B to get combined revenues to $25B.

Not a single merger in telecom in the last fifteen years resulted in anything good. Not one.

The integrations rarely go as planned. These two companies probably have 26 or more separate and different software systems in the BSS/OSS. These will NEVER be integrated. Orders, status and asset availability will be a nightmare. I know. I know. You think I am a pessimist. But truly this will suck especially for the channel.

Any agent that says this is good is either (a) looking for press or (b) is delusional.

There is now less choice. When VZ takes over XO, except for Zayo, who is left that isn’t a LEC or cableco? What happened to the CLEC industry? Totally collapsed as its owners cashed out. Everyone got bigger and no one got better. One by one they have fallen.

It is why Cable is winning the broadband game. (Cable is single minded.) It is why businesses buy cloud services from OTT. (Bell-head mentality precludes anything but network and voice.)

This is the LEC problem: lack of focus; deficient long term strategy; and a missing willingness to win the customer. It’s all about the creation of value without actually creating any value.

Since the Board will almost stay intact and the CEO remains, what new gen strategy or thinking do you think will occur with the combined entity? I get why the L3 CFO is staying: someone has to keep that debt at bay and play with the NOLs so that the stock doesn’t crash when revenues start to slide.

I won’t even get into the culture differences between the 2 companies. L3 and TWT had only slightly different cultures but most of the TWT people exited. This is a good payday for L3 CEO but he will go down as the guy who killed a good idea. The blood of thousands of employees and agents are on Story’s head.

Hopefully, someone else will make a big for Level3 as a white knight – Comcast, Zayo, or a PE firm*.

**Although STT owns about 13% of Level3, I don’t see a PE firm wanting the company, except to do to it what Icahn did to XO. L3 doesn’t throw off enough cash.

According to CenturyLink press release, the deal, which is expected to close by the end of the 3Q 2017, results in:

  • 200,000 route miles of fiber, which includes 64,000 route miles in 350 metropolitan areas and 33,000 subsea route miles connecting multiple continents
  • CenturyLink’s on-net buildings are expected to increase by nearly 75 percent to approximately 75,000, including 10,000 buildings in EMEA and Latin America

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  • L3 Sells Coal MineNov 28, 2011
  • Rumor: Level3 to Merge with CenturyLinkOct 28, 2016
  • The Mighty Light of Wall StreetSep 01, 2016
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  • How Many VARs Are There AnywayJul 31, 2013
  • The Fall of the CLECsOct 04, 2012
  • CenturyLink Merger Mania Does Add UpAug 15, 2012
  • 11 Top Stories in Telecom in 2011Dec 15, 2011
  • The Panel of 5Oct 11, 2011
  • It Finally HappenedApr 11, 2011
    level3gc2.jpg
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    Apex Technology Services
    Sponsored by Apex Technology Services, a leading IT Services company

    Your Webinar Sucks!

    As an agent I get invited to too many webinars, training, lunch-n-learns and events. Here is where you go wrong:

    Vendors try to puke every ounce of information at me in 40 minutes! UGH!!!

    Look at it from this view:

    • What makes a TED Talk great?*
    • What is popular on radio? Howard Stern, Sports talk radio, Rush
    • What makes podcasts work? Interviews, banter, tips and tricks
    • What makes YouTube work? Gary Vee!

    What doesn’t work? You puking your entire catalog and every fact and figure at me.

    Have you taken an online course or a college course recently? They teach one chapter of a book per week in college according to my adjunct professor friends. One chapter per week. Not the whole book in 45 minutes!

    The key is to pick one nugget, one take away and present it clearly and concisely. Be Interesting, so that people become Interested.

    You know what we want to know?

    • How do we make money from this one product you are pushing (this quarter)?
    • Who is buying?
    • Why are they buying it?
    • Why are they buying it from YOU?

    * If you don’t know what a TED Talk is, stop presenting!

    Also, Practice. Don’t wing it.

    Present from a quiet place like an office, not the airport, your car, or live from Starbucks.

    Tags: , ,
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    IMG_20140813_145516.jpg
  • Startup Advice for Non-StarupsMay 05, 2016
  • Where is the Channel Going?Oct 26, 2015
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  • Some Observations on UC&CMay 21, 2015
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  • What Happened in Vegas?Mar 19, 2015
  • 2015Jan 01, 2015
  • TrackBacks
    | Comments | Tag with del.icio.us | On Rad’s Radar? Home | Permalink: Your Webinar Sucks!


    Copyright On Rad’s Radar?

    Your Webinar Sucks!

    As an agent I get invited to too many webinars, training, lunch-n-learns and events. Here is where you go wrong:

    Vendors try to puke every ounce of information at me in 40 minutes! UGH!!!

    Look at it from this view:

    • What makes a TED Talk great?*
    • What is popular on radio? Howard Stern, Sports talk radio, Rush
    • What makes podcasts work? Interviews, banter, tips and tricks
    • What makes YouTube work? Gary Vee!

    What doesn’t work? You puking your entire catalog and every fact and figure at me.

    Have you taken an online course or a college course recently? They teach one chapter of a book per week in college according to my adjunct professor friends. One chapter per week. Not the whole book in 45 minutes!

    The key is to pick one nugget, one take away and present it clearly and concisely. Be Interesting, so that people become Interested.

    You know what we want to know?

    • How do we make money from this one product you are pushing (this quarter)?
    • Who is buying?
    • Why are they buying it?
    • Why are they buying it from YOU?

    * If you don’t know what a TED Talk is, stop presenting!

    Also, Practice. Don’t wing it.

    Present from a quiet place like an office, not the airport, your car, or live from Starbucks.

    Tags: , ,
    Related tags: ,

    Related Entries

  • Show Wrap Up: Too Much Reckless BehaviorAug 17, 2016
  • Where Are We Now? Ode to the AgentAug 09, 2016
  • Nothing But Vanilla PuddingJul 29, 2016
    IMG_20140813_145516.jpg
  • Startup Advice for Non-StarupsMay 05, 2016
  • Where is the Channel Going?Oct 26, 2015
  • What Are You Learning Today?Jul 29, 2015
  • Some Observations on UC&CMay 21, 2015
  • Getting PerspectiveMay 14, 2015
  • What Happened in Vegas?Mar 19, 2015
  • 2015Jan 01, 2015
  • TrackBacks
    | Comments | Tag with del.icio.us | On Rad’s Radar? Home | Permalink: Your Webinar Sucks!


    Copyright On Rad’s Radar?

    Rumor: Level3 to Merge with CenturyLink

    This was the big rumor yesterday that the Wall Street Journal started. There was speculation back in July about Level3 being up for sale. There even was the rumor that Comcast was going to buy L3.

    Level3 has a bad quarter financially and the C-Suite says, “Don’t look here! Look over there!”

    Also, bankers! Besides the C-Suite, Bankers are the only ones making money on these deals. So yeah that want more M&A – as overall M&A activity in 2016 is down. Truthfully, bankers have ruined telecom with all this M&A.

    Yesterday I was at a TelAdvocate event in Tampa. No agent there thought it was a good idea. Emails from other agents are basically panic. We just got done with integration. Please not another one!!!

    What do they get with this merger? Two very opposite cultures. One is mainly an RLEC. One is mainly a wholesaler. Not does that match up?

    Level3 fiber is everywhere that Qwest is with its Genuity, Gobal Crossing and own long haul fiber. L3 could probably do a better job selling colocation and data center that C-Link.

    The big picture is that you would have a larger telco with massive debt — and declining revenue. Since CenturyLink has debt of around $20B with about $18B in revenue and Level 3 has debt of about $10B with $8B in annual revenue, the combined entity would have $26B in revenue and $30B in debt. Plus years of integration work, layoffs, confusion, and eventually lost revenue and a lousy organization.

    As brokers of telecom, we want choice in the marketplace. This doesn’t achieve that.

    I am hoping this is just a banker balloon. Both stocks moved up, so maybe someone was just doing some day trading.

    Tags: , ,
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  • The Last CLEC PivotJul 14, 2016
  • 20 Years and what?Feb 10, 2016
  • Fiber Play: NTELOS Bought by ShentelAug 13, 2015
    1980s-tape.jpg
  • Promises UnkeptJul 12, 2015
  • News Tidbits Part 2917Apr 27, 2015
  • One Deal And One BullhornMay 09, 2013
  • Some Interesting ReadsMar 13, 2013
  • An Agent’s take on Level3Nov 06, 2012
  • The Fall of the CLECsOct 04, 2012
  • TrackBacks
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    Copyright On Rad’s Radar?

    Apex Technology Services
    Sponsored by Apex Technology Services, a leading IT Services company

    Rumor: Level3 to Merge with CenturyLink

    This was the big rumor yesterday that the Wall Street Journal started. There was speculation back in July about Level3 being up for sale. There even was the rumor that Comcast was going to buy L3.

    Level3 has a bad quarter financially and the C-Suite says, “Don’t look here! Look over there!”

    Also, bankers! Besides the C-Suite, Bankers are the only ones making money on these deals. So yeah that want more M&A – as overall M&A activity in 2016 is down. Truthfully, bankers have ruined telecom with all this M&A.

    Yesterday I was at a TelAdvocate event in Tampa. No agent there thought it was a good idea. Emails from other agents are basically panic. We just got done with integration. Please not another one!!!

    What do they get with this merger? Two very opposite cultures. One is mainly an RLEC. One is mainly a wholesaler. Not does that match up?

    Level3 fiber is everywhere that Qwest is with its Genuity, Gobal Crossing and own long haul fiber. L3 could probably do a better job selling colocation and data center that C-Link.

    The big picture is that you would have a larger telco with massive debt — and declining revenue. Since CenturyLink has debt of around $20B with about $18B in revenue and Level 3 has debt of about $10B with $8B in annual revenue, the combined entity would have $26B in revenue and $30B in debt. Plus years of integration work, layoffs, confusion, and eventually lost revenue and a lousy organization.

    As brokers of telecom, we want choice in the marketplace. This doesn’t achieve that.

    I am hoping this is just a banker balloon. Both stocks moved up, so maybe someone was just doing some day trading.

    Tags: , ,
    Related tags: , , ,

    Related Entries

  • National Harbor: In the BubbleAug 17, 2016
  • The Last CLEC PivotJul 14, 2016
  • 20 Years and what?Feb 10, 2016
  • Fiber Play: NTELOS Bought by ShentelAug 13, 2015
    1980s-tape.jpg
  • Promises UnkeptJul 12, 2015
  • News Tidbits Part 2917Apr 27, 2015
  • One Deal And One BullhornMay 09, 2013
  • Some Interesting ReadsMar 13, 2013
  • An Agent’s take on Level3Nov 06, 2012
  • The Fall of the CLECsOct 04, 2012
  • TrackBacks
    | Comments | Tag with del.icio.us | On Rad’s Radar? Home | Permalink: Rumor: Level3 to Merge with CenturyLink


    Copyright On Rad’s Radar?

    Apex Technology Services
    Sponsored by Apex Technology Services, a leading IT Services company